Oil prices rose more than 1% on Friday, with Brent crude futures settling above $88 a barrel and posting a roughly 6% weekly gain as new tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations revived fears of Middle East supply disruptions. New York West Texas Intermediate futures advanced alongside Brent, leaving oil up more than 40% year-to-date as war-related outages continue to affect output and exports across the Persian Gulf region. The immediate catalyst was an attack on two vessels operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) while they were transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping chokepoint that carries roughly 20% of global energy supplies. The UAE's state news agency said the Emirati government condemned the incident as an attack carried out by Iran, while ADNOC said the situation had been brought under control. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent then signaled tougher pressure on Tehran, saying Washington would impose economic measures "the likes of which the world has never seen" and could maintain a maritime blockade against Iran indefinitely. Analysts said the renewed security risks added a geopolitical premium to prices ahead of the weekend. Andrew Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates warned that if shipping constraints persist in Hormuz, fuel markets could face a "day of reckoning," with the squeeze potentially hitting diesel and gasoline harder than crude itself. At the same time, negotiations remain deadlocked. Iran is still negotiating with Oman over reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but no agreement has been reached and positions have hardened after U.S. President Donald Trump introduced broader demands. Iran says the strait will not be reopened unless sanctions are lifted and frozen assets are released. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said military escort capacity is improving and put crude exports through Hormuz at roughly 9 million barrels per day over the past seven days, or about 15 million barrels per day including pipeline shipments from the Persian Gulf region. TD Securities, however, estimates transit through Hormuz at only about 5 million barrels per day, underscoring the market's uncertainty over actual flows. That discrepancy matters because it shapes whether this week's rally reflects a genuine tightening of supply or mainly a risk premium. Before the war, about 20 million barrels per day of crude and refined products moved through the strait. If the U.S. government's figures are accurate, traffic has recovered to nearly half of pre-war levels. Elsewhere, additional supply shocks reinforced the market's focus on disruption. Crude exports from the Sheskharis terminal at Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk were suspended on Friday after a drone attack, according to three people familiar with the matter. Yemen's Houthi rebels also claimed to have struck Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery with two drones on Thursday, helping push diesel crack spreads (refining margins for diesel) to record highs. Saudi Aramco's website lists the refinery's ultra-low-sulfur diesel production capacity at 250,000 barrels per day. Still, demand-side data limited the upside. OPEC cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) said oil consumption is now expected to decline by 1.6 million barrels per day this year, deeper than the 1 million barrels per day drop projected last month. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data also showed commercial crude inventories jumped by 17.4 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 7 to 424.4 million barrels, the biggest weekly increase since January 2023 and the highest level since June 5, largely because exports fell sharply. The result is a market caught between geopolitical risk and softening fundamentals. Scott Shelton of TP ICAP Group said actual flows through Hormuz appear higher than initially feared, suggesting recent gains are driven more by risk premium than by outright shortages. Saul Kavonic of MST Marquee expects oil to remain in the $80-$90 a barrel range until a major new development changes the outlook. Market attention is likely to stay fixed on U.S.-Iran negotiations and on whether actual transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz improve or deteriorate.