U.S. inflation seen at 2.3% in 2026, clouding Fed rate-cut outlook

U.S. inflation is still projected to run above the Federal Reserve’s target, with the PCE price index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) seen at 2.3% for 2026 versus the central bank’s 2% long-term goal. Bloomberg Markets said the federal funds target range has remained at 3.5% to 3.75% since the start of the year, a backdrop that markets are reading as supportive of a slower path toward any rate cuts. The report suggests investors see a lower probability of imminent easing while inflation remains elevated relative to the Fed’s objective. Attention is now turning to upcoming FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meetings through October 2026, as well as incoming data on unemployment and the PCE price index, for signs that could shift expectations on monetary policy.

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