Oil prices surged and U.S. bond yields moved higher after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire expired, a shift that markets are treating as a fresh sign of geopolitical risk in the Middle East. Higher crude prices suggest investors are factoring in a greater chance of supply disruption, while firmer bond yields indicate concern that a sustained energy shock could feed inflation and raise borrowing costs. Prediction market pricing also turned more bullish on oil, with the implied probability of crude reaching a new all-time high by December 31 rising to 13.5% YES from 12% a day earlier. The source also says market pricing points to crude reaching new all-time highs by the end of 2026. Attention is now on further developments in U.S.-Iran relations and on signals from the OPEC Secretary General, the Executive Director of the IEA (International Energy Agency), and the Saudi Minister of Energy.