Commerzbank sees PBOC support limiting yuan weakness as growth slows

The Chinese yuan is likely to receive policy support as China’s economic growth slows, Commerzbank analysts said in a note on Monday. Weaker industrial production and retail sales have fueled expectations of additional stimulus, which could pressure the yuan by widening interest-rate differentials with the US. The PBOC (China’s central bank) can respond by setting a firmer daily fixing rate, tightening offshore yuan liquidity and applying countercyclical factors. Those measures could limit excessive depreciation and preserve market confidence, although the currency may remain under pressure in the near term. The US dollar’s strength, supported by the Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer interest-rate stance, is another key influence. Commerzbank expects Chinese authorities to prioritize currency stability while seeking to attract foreign investment and support the property sector. Investors are watching for a combination of monetary easing and fiscal support: major stimulus could temporarily weaken the yuan, while targeted foreign-exchange measures may offset that effect. A stable yuan can reduce uncertainty for multinational companies and support trade planning, whereas a sharp decline could contribute to capital outflows and regional currency volatility.

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