U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds is overwhelmingly favored in Kalshi’s prediction market ahead of Tuesday’s Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, with a 99% implied chance of winning the nomination. James Fishback is priced at 1%, while Lt. Gov. Jay Collins is at 0.5%; traders forecast Fishback will receive 10.3% of the vote. Donalds secured President Donald Trump’s endorsement in February, before formally entering the race, and his campaign and allied PAC had raised $111 million as of mid-August. Decision Desk HQ’s Geoffrey Skelley said Donalds could become Florida’s first Black governor if elected. DeSantis has declined to endorse any of the 11 Republican candidates, potentially giving Fishback more room to attract attention. Fishback has criticized Donalds, drawn national attention, and faced a residency lawsuit from Collins, though a Leon County Circuit Court judge allowed him to remain in the race. Kalshi is subject to oversight by the CFTC (U.S. derivatives regulator). Trading event contracts and leveraged products, including perpetual futures (contracts without an expiry date), involves significant risk.