JPMorgan warns Treasury buybacks could lift yields as debt tops $40 trillion

JPMorgan strategists warned that markets may doubt the credibility of the U.S. Treasury’s unexpected effort to reduce long-term borrowing costs. The Treasury said Wednesday it would at least double bond buybacks to provide "greater liquidity support," a move intended to lower long-term U.S. Treasury yields. Jay Barry and other strategists said the measure addresses symptoms rather than the underlying fiscal position: The U.S. economy is close to full employment while still running a 6% fiscal deficit. They warned that without genuine fiscal consolidation, more opportunistic debt-management practices and a departure from the Treasury’s "conventional and predictable" principles could push up the term premium and long-term yields. U.S. government debt has exceeded $40 trillion, making financing-cost management more difficult as the government continues issuing additional debt. A market survey found that about 60% of respondents expect the U.S. debt situation to worsen until it triggers a major crisis.

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