Pop Mart earnings fall 15%-20% below expectations as overseas sales weaken

Pop Mart (09992.HK) reported first-half earnings 15%-20% below market expectations, driven mainly by a 10% decline in sales in the Americas. An unfavorable product mix also reduced gross margins, adding to profitability pressure. CITIC Securities International lowered its average earnings forecasts for 2026-2028 by 25% and its average sales forecasts by 17%, citing further cuts to overseas sales expectations after disappointing first-half 2026 performance. It also reduced gross-margin forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 0.2 percentage points and 1 percentage point, respectively, because of a structural decline in the share of overseas business and higher raw-material costs. The firm set a HKD 121 target price, based on a projected 2027 price-to-earnings ratio of 14 times, and retained a Sell recommendation.

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