Hedge funds ramp up short-dollar bets as dollar protection premiums reach February high

Bets against the dollar have expanded as the U.S. Treasury increases market intervention aimed at lowering long-term Treasury yields. Hedge funds have added short-dollar positions ahead of fiscal measures signaled by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, while the premium for options protecting against further dollar declines reached its highest level since February. The dollar recorded its biggest one-day drop in nearly three weeks after Bessent said on Aug. 19 that the Treasury would at least double long-term bond buybacks. Bessent calls the strategy a Treasury twist, involving increased short-term bill issuance instead of purchases of long-dated Treasuries. Demand for dollar downside protection has been particularly strong among hedge funds and across Asian currencies, including the Korean won, Thai baht, Singapore dollar and offshore yuan. Longer-term real money investors have not yet established a clear direction.

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