The CBOE Volatility Index rose 0.9 points to close at 15.1 last week, breaking a drift toward year-to-date lows as the S&P 500 fell 1.4%. The move reflected a combination of surging long-term Treasury yields, a government effort to stabilize the bond market and options traders buying downside protection before Nvidia’s August 26 earnings report. The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.33% during the week, its highest level since 2007, prompting Treasury Secretary Bessent to announce a doubling of the Treasury’s bond buyback program to $4 billion. The MOVE Index, a gauge of implied Treasury-market volatility, rose to 73, while the VXTLT 20-Year Bond Volatility Index climbed from the 13th to the 32nd percentile. Nvidia options imply a 6.5% to 7% move around earnings, with put skew indicating that downside protection has become more expensive. Short iron-fly positioning (an options strategy centered on selling calls and puts at one strike) has suppressed at-the-money implied volatility while lifting volatility in the wings, potentially causing the VIX to understate anxiety over larger market moves. A sudden unwinding of those trades could make the VIX spike faster than the underlying market move would normally warrant.