The United States is expected to maintain secondary sanctions against Iran until after the November congressional midterm elections, Axios reported, citing unnamed US officials. The Biden administration appears to be using economic pressure while avoiding near-term military action, though the strategy keeps military options open for the future. The US Treasury recently broadened the sanctions to cover digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping. Market pricing suggests the measures could fuel speculation about President Masoud Pezeshkian’s potential departure, although Axios is classified in the source as a Tier 3 outlet, potentially limiting the effect on market expectations. Observers will watch US-Iran relations after the midterm elections, along with statements by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and actions by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Those developments could affect the likelihood of Pezeshkian leaving by the end of the year, a scenario priced at 15% YES in prediction markets.