Bitcoin’s next move may depend on three macro and market events: July’s U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report, Nvidia’s second-quarter earnings and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. FactSet’s consensus calls for core PCE inflation to reach 3.2% year-on-year and 0.18% month-on-month, compared with 3.3% and 0.13% in June. A hotter reading could revive expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase and pressure Bitcoin and the wider crypto market. Bitcoin has already retreated below $79,000 after a seven-day rally above $80,000, while the relative strength index is signaling overbought conditions. The CME FedWatch tool puts the chance of a 25-basis-point September rate increase at close to 38%, while Giottus CEO Vikram Subburaj said markets see roughly a 60% chance of rates holding at 3.50%-3.75%. Nvidia’s results could influence risk appetite and concerns about debt-funded AI capital spending, with Bitcoin’s 90-day rolling correlation with NVDA largely positive and above 0.5 since early 2025. Warsh’s remarks will be assessed against the U.S. Treasury secretary’s recent plan to increase buybacks of longer-duration bonds, which has been cited as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s surge. Subburaj advises staggered entries, small positions and controlled leverage rather than chasing recent gains.