CLARITY Act Senate vote odds remain 25% as House-passed bill awaits action

The Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act’s path through the Senate remains unresolved. Polymarket priced a 25% chance of the bill receiving more than 60 Senate votes, a market signal that reflects industry expectations but does not determine the legislative outcome. Congress.gov records that the House passed H.R. 3633 on July 17, 2025, by 294-134, and lists the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee among the committees associated with the measure. The Senate’s latest recorded action is an August 8, 2026, cloture motion on the motion to proceed, not Senate passage or a completed vote. The bill would create a regulatory framework for digital commodities, generally assigning the CFTC (U.S. derivatives regulator) oversight of related transactions, exchanges, brokers and dealers. It also addresses exchange eligibility, reporting, market monitoring, recordkeeping, customer-asset commingling, securities-registration exemptions and anti-money-laundering obligations. The SEC (U.S. securities regulator) would retain jurisdiction over specified activities. BitGo CEO Mike Belshe warned that regulators could act without the bill, while SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Chair Michael Selig have signaled similar plans. Industry views on the legislation’s prospects remain divided, and the official record does not establish whether the Senate will take another vote or whether the bill will become law.

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