ECB holds rates after June hike as inflation falls to 2.8%

The European Central Bank (ECB), the euro-area central bank, unanimously kept its three key interest rates unchanged at its July 22-23 meeting after raising them in June. The deposit facility rate remains 2.25%, the main refinancing operations rate 2.40% and the marginal lending facility rate 2.65%. Headline inflation fell to 2.8% in June 2026 from 3.2% in May, but remains above the ECB's 2% target. Energy markets are still elevated and volatile amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, while M3, the broad money supply measure, grew 3.4% in July 2026. Christine Lagarde said some governors had considered another immediate increase. The ECB gave no forward guidance, saying future decisions will depend on incoming data. Analysts are watching the next meeting on September 10, 2026, and some are pricing in a 25-basis-point increase that would take the deposit rate to 2.50% if inflation does not improve meaningfully. The decision is a pause rather than a loosening of policy, with the June hike expected to take 12 to 18 months to fully affect lending rates, corporate investment and consumer spending.

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