US 10-year Treasury yield rises to 4.7% after Warsh warning

  • Kevin Warsh warned that inflation has not meaningfully slowed and policymakers still have work to do.
  • 4.7% was the 10-year US Treasury yield after Warsh’s remarks.
  • Money markets priced in more than a 40% chance of a September rate hike.

The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.7% after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation has not meaningfully slowed and policymakers may still have work to do to return price pressures to the Fed’s fixed 2% target. In his first major speech since becoming chair in May, Warsh said financial conditions are not restrictive and that interest rates remain the Fed’s predominant tool for fulfilling its mandate. He said recent PCE and CPI data were better than expected but did not show a meaningful improvement in underlying inflation. The remarks provided greater insight into his policy views after investors criticized his limited communication strategy, while money markets priced in more than a 40% chance of a September rate hike, according to CME FedWatch.

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