U.S. stocks rise as September rate-hike odds jump to 55.7%

  • U.S. stocks closed higher after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh discussed persistent inflation concerns.
  • 55.7% was the September rate-hike probability, up from 35.4% the previous day.
  • Treasury yields diverged while technology shares extended gains from Nvidia’s previous-session forecast.

Major U.S. equity indexes ended Friday higher after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh adopted a hawkish tone on inflation during his first Jackson Hole Economic Symposium appearance since assuming leadership. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained approximately 0.37%, the S&P 500 rose 0.49% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.57%. Investors sharply increased the implied probability of a rate increase at the September 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting to 55.7%, from 35.4% a day earlier, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged through year-end fell to 14.8% from 25.9%. Warsh said he offered no timetable for a rate hike and that his speech was not forward guidance or a formal reaction function, while identifying short-term interest rates as the Fed’s main policy tool. Treasury yields diverged, with the two-year yield reaching 4.3% and the 10-year and 30-year yields slipping to 4.67% and 5.16%, respectively. Technology shares retained momentum from Nvidia’s positive artificial-intelligence forecast, while Salesforce posted its strongest one-day performance since 2020 after addressing concerns about enterprise software demand. The University of Michigan also released consumer sentiment data, and equities finished the week with positive returns despite renewed uncertainty over the Fed’s rate path.

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