Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase at the September 16 meeting have risen sharply after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said inflation remains high and recent data did not show a lasting improvement in underlying trends. Forecasting markets put the probability of unchanged rates at about 55%, a 25-basis-point increase at around 46%, and a larger hike at about 1%. CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed the rate-hike probability at 55.7%, up approximately 20 basis points in one day. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to Fed policy expectations, climbed about 8 basis points to 4.31%, its highest level since the end of July. Warsh said the Fed may need to tighten policy further if inflation does not move clearly and quickly toward its target, but he gave no direct guidance on upcoming decisions or the economic data framework that will determine them. New inflation and employment figures due before the meeting are expected to shape market expectations. This is not investment advice.