Russia expects regulated crypto trading to reach $46.43 billion in first year

  • Sberbank projects regulated Russian crypto trading will begin through licensed brokers.
  • 4 trillion rubles represents the bank's minimum first-year regulated trading estimate.
  • Official Russian exchanges currently support Bitcoin, Ethereum and USDT.

Russia expects official crypto trading through licensed brokers to reach at least 4 trillion rubles, or $46.43 billion, in the first year after the Bank of Russia's draft regulation takes effect on September 1. Sberbank projects the regulated market could expand to about 7.5 trillion rubles, or $87.06 billion, by 2029 as more investors shift from unregistered services to official exchanges. The forecast assumes only about 20% of Russia's estimated annual crypto transaction volume moves to regulated exchanges initially. Growth will be constrained by a 300,000-ruble annual purchase cap for non-qualified investors through a single licensed intermediary, a 3 million-ruble investment limit for qualified investors, and the approval of only Bitcoin, Ethereum and USDT on official Russian exchanges. Other altcoins therefore remain outside the approved exchange system, while exchanges have until July 1, 2027, to register after the transition period.

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