Polymarket, a prediction market for trading event outcomes, shows a 60% probability that WTI crude oil will exceed $90 a barrel in September 2026, up 15 percentage points over 24 hours. The probability of WTI topping $95 stands at 30%, down 1 percentage point over the same period. The repricing followed a U.S. military strike on Iran on Sunday local time, the first such attack in more than a month, targeting two Iranian rocket-launch installations on Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated shortly afterward by attacking a U.S. military base in Jordan. WTI crude rose amid the renewed escalation, briefly reaching $85.53 a barrel.