Russia’s regulated cryptocurrency market could record 3.5 trillion to 4 trillion rubles in trading volume during its first year, with SberCIB Investment Research estimating the upper end at 4 trillion rubles ($46.4 billion). Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov said the forecast assumes only a small share of existing crypto activity moves into the regulated segment. The Finance Ministry estimates current turnover at 50 billion rubles ($605 million) per day, or 18 trillion rubles ($218 billion) annually, while SberCIB expects about 20% of that activity to move onto exchanges. The bank forecasts regulated trading volume of 4.75 trillion to 5.25 trillion rubles by 2028 and 7.5 trillion rubles ($87 billion) by 2029, although these are projections rather than guaranteed volumes or targets. Russia’s new cryptocurrency regime is scheduled to take effect on Sept. 1, 2026, with existing market participants required to apply for licenses by July 1, 2027. Qualified and unqualified investors will be able to trade through intermediaries, while retail investors without qualified status must pass a knowledge test and face an annual purchase limit of 300,000 rubles through each intermediary. The Bank of Russia has said Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tether’s USDT meet proposed public-exchange criteria, but will not permit their use to buy goods and services in Russia. The framework covers brokers, asset managers, crypto exchanges and digital depositories, while Sberbank plans infrastructure for trading, custody and digital depository services.