Australian dollar steadies near $0.71 as stronger GDP lifts rate-hike bets

  • Australian dollar holds near $0.71 after stronger GDP increased rate-hike expectations.
  • GDP grew 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 2.1% annually in Q2.
  • Markets raised September hike odds to 57% from 48% after the release.

The Australian dollar held around $0.71 after stronger-than-expected economic growth increased expectations that the Reserve Bank could raise interest rates again. GDP expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, above the 0.3% forecast, while annual growth accelerated to 2.1% against expectations for 1.8%. The data indicated resilient activity despite efforts to cool demand and contain persistent inflation. Markets lifted the probability of a fourth rate hike at the September meeting to 57% from 48%, while a November increase became more than fully priced in. Expectations for another hike in Q1 2027 also rose to 82% from 62%. Higher energy prices linked to potential supply disruptions amid the escalating US-Iran conflict added to inflation concerns, while rising US yields and a stronger dollar limited gains in the Australian currency.

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