Japan 10-year bond yield breaches 3% for first time since September 1996

  • Japan's 10-year government bond yield briefly moved above 3% on September 1.
  • The yield reached 3.005%, rising 6.5 basis points from the previous day.
  • Markets priced more than 90% odds of a BOJ rate hike on September 17–18.

The yield on newly issued 10-year Japanese government bonds briefly exceeded 3% on September 1, reaching 3.005% after rising 6.5 basis points from the previous day and hitting its highest level since September 1996. Selling intensified as markets increasingly anticipated an additional Bank of Japan rate hike at the September 17–18 policy meeting, with the OIS market pricing in a probability above 90%. Higher long-term rates are lifting fixed-rate housing loan benchmarks and prompting borrowers to ask financial institutions whether to switch from variable-rate loans. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Japan and the United States reaffirmed exchange-rate coordination after Treasury Secretary Bessent urged decisive measures addressing the yen's significant undervaluation. The yen remains in the low-160 range against the dollar, while markets await the BOJ's decision and Governor Kazuo Ueda's press conference for clues on tightening pace and forward guidance.

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