The United States has launched airstrikes against Iran, triggering retaliatory measures from Tehran and intensifying the conflict between the two countries. Iranian counterstrikes have targeted U.S.-linked bases and strategic shipping routes, adding to regional instability and affecting global energy prices. The escalation could also influence President Trump’s approval ratings, although its longer-term political impact remains uncertain. In prediction markets (contracts tied to the outcome of future events), the probability of Iran implementing a full airspace closure by December 31 rose to 28% from 24% in the previous 24 hours. By contrast, the market assigns only a 1.7% probability to Iran targeting Ukraine by September 30. Observers are advised to monitor announcements from the Civil Aviation Organization of Iran and Iranian State Television, along with developments in U.S.-Iran relations and statements from President Trump, as these could influence market pricing. The analysis is powered by Vera, which invites users to sign up for live prediction-market analysis.