Bank of Canada weighs 50% tariffs, rising inflation ahead of interest rate decision

  • Bank of Canada will publish its latest interest rate decision Wednesday.
  • 50% tariffs cover a wide range of Canadian goods under Donald Trump's trade war.
  • Canada's economy grew 0.8% in the second quarter, up from 0.1% previously.

The Bank of Canada will announce its latest interest rate decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday as escalating trade tensions with the United States complicate the outlook for growth and inflation. U.S. President Donald Trump's new trade war includes 50% tariffs on a broad range of Canadian goods, while Canada has announced retaliatory tariffs taking effect Sept. 8 and covering more than $20 billion in goods. The Canadian economy grew 0.8% in the second quarter, up from 0.1% in the first quarter, while headline consumer inflation rose to 3% year-on-year in July from 2.8% in June. The Bank of Canada kept its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight decision in July, down from a recent peak of 5%. Traders have priced three rate increases over the next 12 months, but Bank of America expects policymakers to hold rates in the coming months. Goldman Sachs estimates the tariffs could reduce Canadian GDP growth by 0.3 percentage point and raise inflation by 0.3 percentage point.

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