JPMorgan warns 5% to 5.25% bond yields threaten stock valuations

  • Grace Peters warned that higher bond yields could pressure stock valuations.
  • 5% to 5.25% is Peters' cited danger range for bond yields.
  • Japan's 10-year yield exceeded 3% for the first time since 1996.

Bond yields are approaching levels that JPMorgan Private Bank co-head of global investment strategy Grace Peters says could materially pressure stock valuations. Speaking to Bloomberg Television, Peters highlighted a 5% to 5.25% range as a risk for equities, particularly ahead of September, which has ranked among the weakest months for global fixed-income markets over the past decade. The warning comes as yields rise across major economies: the U.S. 10-year Treasury is roughly 4.8%, its highest level in nearly three years; Japan's 10-year government bond yield has moved above 3% for the first time since 1996; and 30-year U.K. gilts have reached levels last seen in 1998. Persistent inflation, higher oil prices linked partly to geopolitical tensions and changing expectations for central-bank rates are driving the bond selloff. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are recalibrating their policy outlooks. Japan's move is particularly notable after nearly three decades of rates near or below zero. JPMorgan strategists are not uniformly bearish: some remain cautiously optimistic on global stocks, citing earnings momentum associated with stronger economic activity rather than financial engineering or higher valuation multiples. Major indexes have yet to suffer the sharp correction that rising yields have traditionally triggered, but a 4.8% 10-year Treasury yield already offers returns that many equity sectors struggle to match on a risk-adjusted basis, and higher yields would further weaken the relative case for stocks.

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