Prediction-market traders remain skeptical that the CLARITY Act, the House-passed Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633), will become law in 2026. Polymarket assigned the bill a 15% chance on Sept. 2 of passing both chambers and receiving the president’s signature by Dec. 31, with approximately $11.62 million in volume. Kalshi priced a broader outcome—enactment of the CLARITY Act or another qualifying crypto market structure bill—at 30% before July 1, 2027, and 50% before Jan. 1, 2028, on approximately $6.85 million in volume. The bill would divide federal responsibilities between the SEC (U.S. securities regulator) and CFTC (U.S. derivatives regulator), while setting rules for exchanges, brokers, dealers, disclosures, customer asset protection, consumer protection, illicit finance, decentralized finance, intermediary oversight, and specified network tokens. The next direct test is a Senate cloture vote, a procedural vote requiring 60 votes, that could occur as soon as Sept. 15 at 2:15 p.m. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill 15-9 on May 14, with Democratic Senators Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks joining Republicans, but later Senate revisions could require further action because they differ from the House-passed measure. House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill has renewed his support for permanent, predictable financial rules, while the market continues to treat procedural progress and final enactment as separate outcomes.