Sugar prices reached 18.15 cents per pound on Thursday, their highest level since April 2025, extending an almost 30% advance in five weeks from 13.97 cents on Aug. 3. The rally has been driven by supply disruptions and amplified by speculative buying. Brazilian mills have redirected cane toward ethanol as Brent crude traded near $94 a barrel, while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has kept energy costs high. Mills entered the season less than half-hedged, and Center-South sugar output fell 26.3% year over year in June, according to UNICA. India banned exports in May before authorizing 1 million tonnes of duty-free raw sugar imports through Oct. 31, its first sizeable purchase since the 2017-18 season. Domestic prices reached a 16-year high, prompting the government to limit bulk buyers to 15 days of stock. Forecasts have shifted from expected surpluses to projected deficits, with Green Pool seeing a 3.2 million tonne shortfall in 2026/27 and StoneX forecasting 1.7 million tonnes. A strong El Niño (periodic Pacific climate pattern) adds risk to Indian and Thai cane crops, a threat Goldman flagged in June. Technical traders are watching 19.48 cents after sugar moved above the 15.58-cent Fibonacci retracement level (price-movement reference) and reached the 0.5 retracement at 18.28 cents. Momentum indicators remain supportive, although crowded speculative positioning could intensify a reversal.