Brent crude reached $99.38 per barrel by 8 a.m. Eastern on September 3, up $3.27 from the previous morning and roughly $31.50 above its level a year earlier. The benchmark is approaching $100 for the first time since a brief spike earlier in 2026, when prices reached about $120 before retreating. Renewed US airstrikes on Iranian missile and radar infrastructure have revived hostilities that a June ceasefire had sought to contain. The Strait of Hormuz, a 21-mile-wide channel carrying roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply, has become a key source of concern after tanker transits fell to as few as six vessels on a recent day, versus a 10-day rolling average of about 13. Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE have also begun reducing output as storage facilities and logistics networks come under pressure, independently of any OPEC directive. Brent is approximately 41% to 45% higher year over year. Analysts have raised their Brent forecasts and several have highlighted increased odds of Federal Reserve tightening. Brent settled below its intraday high on September 3, closing in the $95 to $97 range. Statements from US officials indicating interest in curtailing long-term hostilities may have contributed to the retreat from the day's peak, although prices remained well above pre-escalation levels. Tanker transit data through Hormuz is the key real-time indicator to monitor: sustained traffic near six vessels per day rather than a recovery toward 13 would shorten the path to $100 and higher, the source said.