Yen rebound toward 155 risks unleashing $102.6 billion short-covering wave

  • JPMorgan warns a break below 155 could trigger widespread yen short-position unwinding.
  • 2.7%: The yen's weekly gain puts it on track for its strongest performance since July.
  • CFTC data shows net long dollar positions fell to approximately $27.6 billion by August 25.

The yen rose about 2.7% against the dollar this week, bringing dollar-yen close to 155 after a rapid reversal from 160.39. JPMorgan Chase estimates that ¥16 trillion to ¥17 trillion, or approximately $102.6 billion, in yen short positions remain outstanding. A break below 155 could force concentrated short covering, potentially pushing dollar-yen toward 142–146. The bank nevertheless considers expectations surrounding the Government Pension Investment Fund and faster Bank of Japan tightening somewhat overdone, and retains 155–165 as its assumed range. Japan's top currency official Atsushi Mimura said Japan is ready to keep fighting, while swap markets are almost fully pricing a 25-basis-point Bank of Japan rate increase this month and assign about an 80% probability to another hike in December. Bank of America favors shorting dollar-yen toward 149, and TD Securities holds a moderately bearish dollar view. Traders are now focused on Friday's nonfarm payrolls report and next week's consumer price data, which could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve's next decision.

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