Australian dollar breaks above $0.72 to four-month high on rate hike bets

  • Australian dollar rose above $0.72 as traders increased near-term rate hike expectations.
  • Markets priced a 58% chance of an Australian rate hike this month, up from 49%.
  • Stronger second-quarter GDP followed three Australian rate hikes this year.

The Australian dollar rose above $0.72 to a four-month high as expectations for a near-term interest rate increase strengthened. A weaker US dollar provided additional support after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would support keeping rates unchanged if inflation pressures continued to ease, leading investors to reduce bets on a Federal Reserve hike later this month. Traders are awaiting US jobs data due later today for further clues about the Fed's policy outlook. Stronger second-quarter GDP data in Australia reinforced expectations that the RBA (Australia's central bank) could resume tightening after three rate hikes this year. Markets now price a 58% chance of an increase this month, up from 49%, while a November hike is fully priced in. Interest-rate swaps imply 40 basis points of tightening next year, equivalent to one and a half rate hikes. Renewed fighting in the Gulf has also pushed oil prices higher and intensified inflation concerns, supporting the hawkish outlook.

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