The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16 meeting fell back to roughly 50% on Friday, reversing a move to 70% on Thursday and a low of 37% a week earlier. CME Group's FedWatch tool shows an almost even split between maintaining the benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% and lifting it by a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00%. The market has also pushed back expectations for a second hike: a move to 4.00%-4.25% is not priced as the most likely outcome until the March 2027 meeting, rather than December 2026 as futures implied earlier in the week. Rate expectations have fluctuated with oil prices and bond yields linked to the Iran conflict, complicating the inflation outlook. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faced a divided market over the hike question at Jackson Hole, while the central bank remains split on whether further tightening is needed. Bitcoin rose above $80,000 this week as discussion of an end to the Iran war spread and traded near $81,000 on Friday, up roughly 5% over 24 hours. Lower hike odds generally reduce pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar, providing supportive conditions for Bitcoin. The durability of that support may depend on developments in Iran and the next inflation reading before the September 16 decision.