Bitcoin has struggled to extend its rally as spot sell orders near $81,000 repeatedly absorb buying, keeping the cryptocurrency in a range despite considerably reduced leverage pressure. Crypto trading firm QCP Capital said on the 4th that the main constraint was spot selling rather than excessive long leverage. Bitcoin traded this week between roughly $76,700 and $81,500, with two attempts to break the $81,000-$86,000 zone rejected. Futures open interest is near a five-month low, crypto-collateralized positions represent about 11% of total open interest, and annualized funding rates remain below 10%. Spot demand has improved: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $199.9 million on the 28th of last month and $236.9 million on the 1st, followed by inflows of about $103.6 million on the 2nd and $732.9 million on the 3rd. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for roughly $451.6 million of the 3rd's inflows. QCP Capital said Bitcoin's failure to close higher despite $731 million in ETF inflows showed that substantial sell orders remained near recent highs. The market is watching the U.S. August jobs report, with consensus forecasts for about 50,000 nonfarm payroll additions and a 4.1% unemployment rate. A weaker report could reduce expectations for a September rate hike, while a stronger result could revive tightening bets. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on the 3rd that he leaned toward holding rates steady at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, provided August inflation continued to disinflate. The implied probability of a September rate hike fell from about 63% to roughly 50%, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 3.6 basis points to 4.758%. Bitcoin rebounded from about $76,900 and briefly exceeded $82,000 on some exchanges before returning to around $81,000. Glassnode researcher Frederik Taysen said a mid-August short squeeze lifted Bitcoin into the $80,000 area, but the move stalled between $83,000 and $86,000, where long-term-holder supply is concentrated. Glassnode data showed that 68% of Bitcoin supply was profitable at late-August prices, up from 65% in May, increasing the pool of coins potentially available for sale. QCP Capital said the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield may be more important for Bitcoin than the federal funds rate over the next two weeks, particularly whether it remains below its August peak. The U.S. Treasury Department is scheduled on the 9th to conduct its first buyback after raising the long-duration bond repurchase cap from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. QCP Capital identified the operation as a test of whether liquidity and yields at the long end of the market can be meaningfully affected. Glassnode linked Bitcoin's failure to hold above $80,000 with a sharp rebound in Treasury yields: after the Treasury buyback announcement on August 19, the 10-year yield briefly neared 4.6% before returning to 4.8% within eight trading sessions. Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl said Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 had fallen to about 33% from levels above 60%, while its correlation with gold rose from almost zero at the start of the year to more than 50%. He interpreted the shift as evidence that investors were again focusing on scarce assets amid persistent fiscal deficits and rising debt-servicing costs. Key Bitcoin support levels are around $71,000, the average cost basis for short-term holders, and $62,000-$65,000 below that. Options open interest for September 25 expiries across Deribit and BlackRock's IBIT totals approximately $14 billion, with a substantial share above the $80,000 strike, making it another important volatility reference point.