Dow falls 150 points as August jobs beat lifts Fed hike odds to 58%

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average fell after August jobs growth exceeded forecasts.
  • 162,000 jobs were added in August versus economists' 53,000 forecast.
  • Fed hike odds reached 58% for the Sept. 15–16 meeting, CME FedWatch showed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 150 points, or 0.3%, after August payroll growth sharply exceeded expectations and raised the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the Sept. 15–16 meeting to 58% from 49.4% the previous day. The economy added 162,000 jobs against a 53,000 forecast from economists surveyed by Dow Jones, while unemployment held at 4.1% and earlier June and July readings were revised higher. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1%. Fed funds futures (contracts tracking expected Federal Reserve interest rates) reflected the shift in policy expectations, and the 2-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since January 2025. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management chief economic strategist Ellen Zentner said the jobs data could increase rate-hike concerns, although next week's inflation figures will be important in determining whether the Federal Reserve views labor-market signals as inflationary. For the week, the Dow was little changed, while the S&P 500 was set to gain about 0.4% and the Nasdaq about 0.8%. The move contrasted with Thursday, when all three major indexes rose after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would be inclined to support keeping rates within the 3.5% to 3.75% target range at the September meeting. Diesel prices reached a record $5.85 a gallon, surpassing the previous 2022 peak, while Brent crude traded near $94 a barrel.

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