CPI report on Sept. 11 to test Fed rate-hike expectations

  • Investors will scrutinize the Sept. 11 CPI report before the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 15-16 meeting.
  • Fed funds futures priced a 57% chance of a September rate hike Friday.
  • The S&P 500 ended the week with a slim gain, about 1% below its mid-August record.

U.S. investors will focus on the Consumer Price Index report due Sept. 11 as they assess whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its Sept. 15-16 meeting. Rate-hike expectations have shifted after comments from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and Fed Governor Christopher Waller, while a strong August employment report showing 162,000 new jobs lifted the implied probability of a hike to 57% late Friday. Economists polled by Reuters expect consumer prices to rise 0.4% in August and core prices, excluding food and energy, to increase 0.2%. The Producer Price Index report on Thursday will provide an earlier view of inflation. The S&P 500 ended the week with a slim gain after falling Friday, remained about 1% below its mid-August record high, and has gained nearly 13% in 2026. Investors are also monitoring Treasury yields, Middle East tensions and Oracle's quarterly results for clues about the market's next direction.

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