CLARITY Act faces new delay as passage odds fall below 20%

  • National Sheriffs’ Association shifted from opposing the CLARITY Act to a neutral position.
  • Galaxy Research cut the bill’s 2026 enactment probability from 50% to 30%.
  • House leaders canceled voting sessions during the weeks of September 21 and 28.

The CLARITY Act, a proposed crypto market structure bill, received a boost after the National Sheriffs’ Association (NSA) moved from opposition to neutral. The organization said the legislation’s complexity and unresolved negotiations warranted allowing the legislative process to continue, easing one concern for Senate Democrats whose votes may be needed. The bill’s first Senate floor test was supposed to occur on September 15, but scheduling setbacks have made passage this year more difficult. Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed a cloture motion on H.R. 3633 in early August. The vote requires 60 senators and would limit debate on proceeding to the bill rather than enact the CLARITY Act itself. Republicans hold 53 seats, so Democratic or independent senators would need to support the motion if Republicans vote together. House Republican leaders canceled voting sessions during the weeks of September 21 and 28, removing eight legislative days, while the House is scheduled to leave Washington on September 17. The compressed calendar leaves little time for Senate and House negotiations before lawmakers focus on the November midterms, making a post-election lame-duck session an increasingly realistic route if the bill clears the Senate. Galaxy Research cut its estimated probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 from 50% to 30%, while prediction markets place the odds below 20%.

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