The U.S. has expressed confidence that ongoing trilateral talks on the Ukraine war can produce a favorable outcome. Brokered by Washington, the discussions involve Ukraine, Russia and the U.S. as diplomatic efforts intensify alongside continuing military action, with territorial disputes and ceasefire terms among the central issues. Prediction-market pricing reflects different expectations across time horizons: the probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026, stands at 23.5% YES, down from 34% 24 hours earlier but above 18% a week ago. Meanwhile, the probability of an agreement by April 1, 2027, is priced at 43.5% YES, indicating stronger market attention to a potential early-2027 diplomatic breakthrough. Observers will watch for official updates from the U.S., Ukraine or Russia, as well as military developments, statements from U.S. President Donald Trump or Russian President Vladimir Putin, new mediation efforts and possible territorial compromises. Live prediction-market analysis is offered by Vera.