Economist Robin Brooks said the Treasury market's underlying dynamic is more troubling than investors realize, with yields rising even as U.S. economic data has generally undershot expectations over the past month. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.8%, its highest level since January 2025, while the 30-year yield reached 5.31% in August, its highest since June 2007. Brooks attributed the move to investor concern over the trajectory of the fiscal deficit rather than incoming economic data. A stronger-than-expected August jobs report, which showed 162,000 jobs added versus 65,000 expected, also lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike this month to 50% on Polymarket, 73% on Kalshi before 2027 and 59% on CME FedWatch. Markets are now focused on Friday's inflation report. At Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said the 2% inflation target remains a firm, fixed target and that policymakers should focus predominantly on prices, while saying he would struggle to call broad financial conditions restrictive. Brooks described the policy dynamic as a new Treasury-Fed accord aimed at containing yields amid deficits, as national debt surpassed $40 trillion. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust closed Friday down 0.39% at $770.19 and fell another 0.1% after hours, while the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF rose 0.18% to $718.96 before slipping 0.2% in extended trading.