Brent crude rose to $97.58 a barrel on Monday after military confrontations between American and Iranian forces near the Strait of Hormuz, where about 20% of global oil shipments normally pass. West Texas Intermediate gained 1.3% to about $92.69, following weekly increases of nearly 8% for Brent and close to 10% for WTI. The confrontation began Saturday when U.S. forces struck three Iranian oil vessels, including one near Kharg Island, close to Iran's main crude-export terminal. Tehran said its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy targeted three tankers using unauthorized shipping lanes, attacked three additional American vessels in separate locations and later struck a U.S. Navy unmanned aircraft. Iran's senior security advisor said a new maritime exclusion zone (restricted area for shipping) would be established near the strait within days, with ships entering it potentially subject to punitive measures. Maritime security firm Marisks called the incidents a major escalation, while Kpler data showed commercial vessel movements had fallen to about 10 ships a day over the previous 10 days, the lowest level since May. Crude flows remained just above 9 million barrels a day, partly supported by U.S. Navy convoy operations. Market analysts warned that further declines in traffic could bring larger supply disruptions into prices. OPEC+ (oil-producing countries and allies) kept October production targets unchanged after six consecutive months of increases, shifting its focus to 2027 allocations. Analysts cited in the report expect limited exports through the rest of 2026, a possible gradual reopening near the end of the fourth quarter and a return to pre-conflict transit levels only in late first quarter or early second quarter of 2027.