Goldman sees oil reaching $120 if Middle East shipping attacks worsen

  • Goldman Sachs recommends natural gas and diesel bets amid rising shipping-disruption risks.
  • $120 a barrel is Goldman’s upside scenario; its lower target is $80 if exports normalize.
  • Brent traded near $97, while diesel more than doubled this year.

Oil could rise to $120 a barrel if attacks on Middle East shipping increase, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said, while also recommending bets on natural gas and diesel to capture potential gains. Brent crude recently traded near $97 after reaching its highest level since July as the United States and Iran remained in a stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman also has a lower oil target of $80 if regional exports normalize. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research, said recent events indicate a meaningful risk that shipping disruptions could broaden and intensify. He said investors should hedge geopolitical risks through long positions, or bets on price gains, in global natural gas and refined-oil products because supply shocks are larger than in crude. Diesel has more than doubled this year. China is expected to act as a stabilizing force in crude by curbing imports as prices rise, but Struyven said it is not playing the same role in natural gas and products.

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