The probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase in September has risen to 52% on prediction market Kalshi, compared with a 48% chance of rates remaining unchanged. One basis point equals 0.01 percentage point. Inflation data scheduled before the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be an important factor in the decision. U.S. President Donald Trump has urged Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to cut interest rates, arguing that high borrowing costs are restraining economic growth.