Fed rate-hike odds reach 52% as Trump pressures Chair Kevin Warsh

  • Markets favor a September Fed rate hike over no change.
  • Kalshi prices a 52% chance of a 25-basis-point increase.
  • President Trump is pressuring Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to cut rates.

Markets are assigning a 52% probability to a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September, compared with 48% for no change, according to Kalshi. The shift comes as President Trump increases pressure on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to lower interest rates.

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