Brent crude has rallied this month but remained below $100 a barrel despite renewed U.S.-Iran escalation disrupting exports through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Middle East producers are shipping about 11 million barrels per day, down from 18 million bpd before the Iran war began seven months ago, according to Argus. Hormuz flows have fallen below 2 million bpd, but their daily moving average remains around 4 million to 5 million bpd, which Rystad Energy's Chief Economist Claudio Galimberti said supports a fair Brent price of $95. Gulf exporters are using alternative ports and ship-to-ship transfers outside Hormuz, while higher output from the U.S., Canada and Guyana is partly offsetting the shortfall. Demand destruction reached 3.5 million bpd in the third quarter, with China accounting for more than half, and Chinese seaborne crude imports fell to 7 million bpd in July and August from more than 11 million bpd in February. Physical-market premiums have rebounded, with Oman futures at $104.54 a barrel and cash Dubai at $105.10 on Monday. Analysts and banks have raised forecasts, including Morgan Stanley's expectation for Brent to average $100 a barrel in the fourth quarter, while Goldman Sachs expects shipping disruptions to persist into next year.