Australia’s 10-year yield nears 5.2% as RBA tightening bets surge

  • RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter indicated another rate increase remains possible this year.
  • Markets priced a 68% chance of a 25-basis-point hike to 4.60% on September 29.
  • NAB’s business conditions index reached a six-year low in August.

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield traded around 5.2%, near its highest level since mid-2011, as markets increasingly priced in further tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said policymakers have limited tolerance for persistent inflation and could raise rates for a fourth time this year if price pressures are stronger than expected. Markets now assign a 68% probability to a 25-basis-point increase, or 0.25 percentage point, to 4.60% at the September 29 meeting, up from below 10% a month earlier. The probability of rates reaching 4.85% next year has risen to 60%. The repricing pushed the 10-year yield’s premium over U.S. Treasuries to 43 basis points, its widest level in three months. At the same time, surveys showed growing economic pressure from higher borrowing costs, fuel prices and a weakening housing market. NAB’s business conditions index fell to a six-year low in August, while consumer sentiment weakened sharply in September.

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