European energy prices rise as year-end crude oil record odds reach 10.5%

  • European energy markets saw gas, heating oil and sulfur prices increase after the Iran conflict began.
  • €73-€74 per megawatt-hour marks Dutch TTF’s current natural gas price range.
  • Prediction markets assign a 10.5% probability to a crude oil record by December 31.

European natural gas, heating oil and sulfur prices have risen since the onset of the conflict involving Iran, highlighting higher input costs across gas- and oil-linked energy markets. Dutch TTF, the European natural gas benchmark, is near €73-€74 per megawatt-hour, a level not seen since early 2023. Heating oil is approximately $4.68 per gallon and sulfur is around 8,639 CNY per ton. Crude oil prediction markets show limited near-term expectation of a new all-time high by September 30, while the implied probability of a record by December 31 has edged up to 10.5% from the previous day. The market movements are consistent with scenarios in which unresolved geopolitical tensions contribute to supply disruptions and sustained commodity-price increases. Future pricing may be influenced by policy decisions from OPEC’s Secretary General and the Saudi Minister of Energy, including any announcements on production cuts or increases, as well as developments that ease or escalate tensions in the Middle East. Vera offers live prediction-market analysis and invites users to sign up.

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