RBA’s Andrew Hauser flags inflation risks ahead of month-end rate decision

  • Andrew Hauser said the RBA has not decided whether to raise interest rates this month.
  • The RBA increased rates three times at the beginning of 2026.
  • Inflation is due back within the 2% to 3% target range by end-2027.

Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said the central bank has not predetermined whether it will raise interest rates at the end of September, despite expectations of policy tightening by the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Australian economy is growing roughly at trend, unemployment is near historic lows, employment is expanding through the market sector and real household incomes are rising strongly. Inflation remains the central problem, after three interest-rate increases at the beginning of 2026. Hauser said the Board is weighing whether those moves have been sufficient against three upside risks: the Middle East crisis, an unexpectedly strong global boom driven by artificial intelligence and weak supply potential in Australia. Recent inflation and growth data were stronger than expected, while falling house prices and weak consumer confidence point to a mixed outlook. Hauser said inflation is due to return to the 2% to 3% target range by the end of 2027, with the Board choosing a gradual approach to protect employment gains. He said the bank could raise rates further if that path becomes unworkable, and that he returned from a U.S. trip more concerned about inflation risks. The interview also covered housing supply, productivity, AI investment, central-bank communication and the risk that prolonged above-target inflation could weaken public confidence in the target.

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