The CLARITY Act, a proposed crypto market structure bill, has become a high-stakes political test, with Polymarket pricing its passage odds at roughly 14% while some Capitol Hill sources privately estimate only a 3% to 5% chance. An industry insider said lawmakers broadly expect the legislation to fail but are reluctant to acknowledge that publicly after the crypto industry spent tens of millions of dollars and about 18 months lobbying for it. Democrats have also not provided a clear response to ethics concerns involving President Donald Trump’s crypto-related dealings. If the bill fails, Washington could turn to narrower measures covering stablecoins, tokenization, perpetual futures and prediction markets. Paradigm’s VP Affairs Alexander Grieve said it is premature to treat the legislation as effectively dead, pointing to increased banking-industry lobbying and advertising in Washington. The Senate is scheduled to sit for one week starting Monday, while the House is expected to leave five days later on Friday, leaving limited time to settle differences, win leadership backing and pass the bill through both chambers.