The Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Energy Department's statistics arm, raised its forecast for average U.S. retail diesel prices in 2027 to $4.40 a gallon, 33 cents or 8.2% above its previous estimate of $4.07. It also lifted its 2026 forecast by 22 cents to $5.07 a gallon. Diesel prices reached all-time highs this month as the Middle East conflict disrupted oil and petroleum-product supplies, while Ukraine's drone campaign targeted Russian refineries. EIA said U.S. distillate inventories are being pressured by supply losses from the Middle East, Russia and China, as well as unusually high U.S. net exports. Refinery maintenance is expected to deepen the shortfall this fall and winter just as agricultural and winter demand increases. President Trump said Wednesday that oil prices could begin falling after November's midterm elections, while noting that relief could take longer than the elections. EIA expects diesel crack spreads (refining margins based on crude and diesel prices) to decline through mid-2027, partly assuming tanker traffic through Hormuz returns to normal and allows Saudi and Kuwaiti refineries to export more distillate. The agency said prolonged Middle East disruptions beyond the end of 2026 would produce higher-than-forecast crack spreads, while Russian refinery outages are expected to affect global markets through the first half of 2027. The outlook is updated monthly and remains subject to revision.