President Donald Trump’s campaign against Iran is being compared with the United States’ prolonged post-9/11 military involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq, including the combined use of military threats and economic pressure under the Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF). Prediction-market pricing indicates reduced optimism that a U.S.-Iran deal will be finalized in 2026: the sub-market for an agreement including reconstruction funding assigns 11.5% odds to YES, down from 12% a day earlier. The report frames the approach as pointing to continued confrontation rather than a swift resolution or diplomatic progress. Observers are watching U.S.-Iran negotiations, possible military actions, statements from U.S. Chief Negotiator Mike Vance and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, and mediation efforts by Qatar and Pakistan. Further military strikes or increased uranium enrichment by Iran could reduce the odds of a favorable diplomatic outcome. Vera is offering live prediction-market analysis.