Brent crude has risen above $100 a barrel as renewed Middle East tensions drive oil higher, but the Bank of Korea is not immediately revising the assumptions behind its economic outlook. Brent futures reached the $101 range on the 11th, marking the first move above $100 since July 24. The price is well above the BOK's baseline assumption of an average $84 a barrel for the second half of this year and above the $95 average used in its pessimistic scenario, which assumes a prolonged Middle East conflict. Under that scenario, consumer inflation next year would be 0.4 percentage points higher than in the baseline forecast. The BOK says the $95 figure is an average for the half-year, not a ceiling for daily prices, and that roughly two days of market movement is insufficient to establish a lasting shift. It is focused on how long oil remains elevated. A prolonged period near $90 to $100, or further supply disruptions, could push the outcome beyond the pessimistic case and affect inflation, growth, the current account and the won-dollar exchange rate. Global investment banks have been raising oil-price forecasts on expectations of extended supply disruptions.