Government bond yields jump as Middle East conflict fuels inflation fears

  • Government bond yields rose across major markets as Middle East tensions threatened energy supplies.
  • Brent crude traded above $100 a barrel and was just below $106 Friday morning.
  • ECB raised its deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.5% and warned inflation could persist.

Government bond yields rose sharply across major markets as the escalating Middle East conflict threatened to keep energy prices and inflation elevated. Brent crude traded above $100 a barrel in recent days and was just below $106 on Friday morning, while the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed amid fighting between US forces and Iran. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels also attacked several Saudi energy targets and advanced toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key alternative route for global energy shipments. The European Central Bank (ECB), the eurozone's central bank, raised its deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.5% and warned that inflation could remain "well above target for an extended period," prompting investors to price in further rate increases. Germany's 10-year Bund yield reached around 3.5%, while equivalent yields were about 4.44% in France, 4.37% in Italy and 3.96% in Spain. The UK's 10-year gilt yield eased toward 5.35% after reaching 5.378% on Thursday, its highest level since 2007. Twenty- and 30-year gilt yields reached 5.895% and 5.948%, their highest levels since 1998. In the United States, the 30-year Treasury yield rose above 5.38%, its highest level since 2007, while the 10-year yield approached 5% and traded around 4.95%. The move was reinforced by higher US wholesale inflation and a disappointing Treasury bond buyback of $5.2 billion against a $6 billion cap, with investors offering $10.5 billion. Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to around 2.98%, close to the 3% level reached earlier this month for the first time since 1996. Bond markets are also absorbing a surge in artificial intelligence-related borrowing: major hyperscalers (large-scale cloud computing companies), including Alphabet and Amazon, have issued more than $200 billion in debt in 2026, according to LSEG data reported by Reuters. A broader Goldman Sachs estimate put AI-related issuance, including data-center and other infrastructure debt, at nearly $500 billion by early August. ECB researchers said rising technology-company issuance could eventually lift borrowing costs across sectors, although they found no evidence of such spillovers in the eurozone at the time of their analysis.

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