U.S. producer inflation hits 5.4% as energy shock lifts Fed hike odds

  • U.S. producer prices increased in August, led by energy and goods.
  • Diesel prices jumped 24.1%, while annual final-demand energy inflation reached 24.4%.
  • Markets priced roughly 70% odds of a 25-basis-point Fed hike on September 15–16.

U.S. final-demand Producer Price Index (PPI), a measure of prices received by producers, rose 0.4% in August 2026 and 5.4% from a year earlier, accelerating from July’s 4.8% annual increase. Energy drove much of the move: final-demand energy prices increased 4.2%, diesel jumped 24.1% in one month, and annual final-demand energy inflation reached 24.4%. Brent crude settled at $107.63 a barrel on September 10 after rising more than 6% in one session, while U.S. crude moved above $100 amid tanker attacks and supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict. Market pricing for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate increase at the September 15–16 meeting rose to around 70%, from the mid-60% range before the report. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened while stocks and Bitcoin faced weaker risk appetite. The underlying PPI measure excluding food, energy and trade services rose 0.3% in August, down from 0.4% in July, with its annual rate unchanged at 4.7%, suggesting the latest acceleration remained concentrated in energy rather than broad-based producer inflation. The next CPI report, oil prices and the Federal Reserve meeting will help determine whether the increase represents a temporary supply shock or a more persistent inflation resurgence that keeps rates higher for longer.

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